Computers are undergoing Mass Extinction more prolific than the Dinosaur extinction. Personal and Organizational outlook to computers are unable to keep pace with the speed of Computer revolution. This is causing the IT-LOGJAM.
CIO is hard pressed to make the Head IT and Head of Business recognize this growing disconnect. The uphill task of bringing fundamental changes to attitudes and approaches is no smaller than the re-creation of life after the events of Mass Extinction.
To understand what happens during and after such cataclysmic changes, it is necessary to learn a bit about Mass Extinctions. “Speciation” is the intensity and spread of new species. As time evolves the Speciation has been more intense, creating more diverse life (Fig-1 A). At every Mass Extinction datum (level) the fraction of the existing genera (higher grouping of species) that became extinct ranges from 30 to 55% (Fig-1 B). Notwithstanding the Mass Extinction, the number of species continued to grow.
Figure Caption: The relationship between the percentage of species (genera) that became extinct and the number of species that occupied earth over the geological time. Every Mass Extinction event was followed by a spurt in growth of new species. Often, such new species formed a completely new ecosystem on the planet (Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_event#Patterns_in_frequency)
From the days of Main Frame Computers in 1960s, through the Mini-Computers, Micro-Computers, Super-Computers, Client-Servers, Multi-Processors, Multi-Core Systems, CICS, RISC, Desktop-PC, Desktop-Super-Computers, Clouds, Laptops, Palmtops, iPads to Smart-Phones – the computers have seen “speciation” and “extinction”. Very few even know the darling Mini-Computer of 1980s – The VAX. A Cray Super-Computer is no more familiar than Carnotaurus (meat eating bull Dinosaur). Smart Phone is more pervasive than Indian Mosquito (Anopheles gambiae)!
Evolution is intrinsically related to Extinction. Every such traversal among them imbibes new concepts and principles. Some fundamentals may remain unchanged but a lot of details are radically changed.
· Life remained stable around the principle of Cell and Genetic transmittal all through these 542 million years of the Figure above.
· Computers remained supported by the fundamental binary logic and principle of Semi-Conductors.
· Life always had a ‘birth’, ‘living’ and ‘death’.
· Computers have a ‘program’, ‘hardware’ and ‘user’.
The similarities are large. Let us delve on few.
· Imagine, we living in the world of dinosaurs or they living in our world.
· More extremely, imagine a life in early Proterozoic when earth was deficient in Oxygen.
· Imagine living in the most intense Ice-age known to the planet.
· Imagine living along-side the super volcanism that erupted in Mumbai 140 million years ago.
· Imagine using the smart phone like a 1970s’ mini-computer!
· Imagine using the oldest computer you had ever seen like a smart-phone!
This is essentially what is happening. The power of 4*Vax 11/780 is resident in the Samsung Galaxy SII smart-phone (or an Apple iPhone 4). Millions of iPads will be sold to augment the existing Laptops. Almost all of them will make a 1980s super-computer look meek! 32GB on the phone is much larger than the central storage of huge computers in 1990. EVOLUTION is rapid and EXTINCTION is faster!
What has happened to the vision, veracity and vigor of computers as they evolved and became extinct? What fundamental changes are required to assimilate the new-generation of computers? How can we measure our effectiveness in deployment of the computers? What are the Paradigm Changes we need to accept?
As computers became an affordable commodity, its individual utilization has reached trivial levels. Three types of activities are identified (generally). 1) Instant gratifier (e.g. Facebook comments, Twitter etc.) 2) Compulsive (e.g. Filing Tax Return, Checking One’s Stock holding’s value, tallying bank account, Reserving air tickets etc.) and 3) Progressive – Concerted efforts in learning and doing towards a more cognitive, long-term goal (e.g. Citation analysis, Creative Music, Building database, Ontologies in Geology, New Signal Processing method etc.)
Ø ~99% of computers including those embedded in smart-phones are used for “Instant Gratification” functions.
Ø <0.001% of users are capable of elevating their vision or computer’s use to “Progression”
Ø <1% of IT Managers, Business Leaders and Users can recognize, characterize and act to elevate the level of usage from (1) Instant-Gratifier to (3) Progressive
Ø Most so-called systems in workplaces (e.g. SAP, EDMS, etc) are focused around driving (2) Compulsive – often pre-determined work.
Ø This LACK OF ADAPTATION in the user’s mind towards the potential of the 50years of extra-ordinary scale-up (growth) of compute power has resulted into IT LOCK-DOWN.
Ø Every EXTINCTION of Computers (Mainframes or Minis) has created a diverse and proliferous new generation (PCs, iPads), but the overall eco-system of Programs and Users have remained untouched. THIS IS IMBALANCE and A THREAT! 
There is a strong contention that we are experiencing and creating the Earth’s most prolific Mass Extinction. Essentially it can be seen as disparate growth of one aspect of living eco-system – i.e. Humans and their so-called intelligence. In the same way, there is disparate growth of “processing power” and “communication infrastructure”.
Without similar growth of VISION, CONCEPTS and SKILLS, the computers as originally conceived will become extinct. Humans need a complete rethinking on what Computers Can and should do.
